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THINK AGAIN
TECH AND MEDIA OUTLOOK 2016
WSJD Live Conference
October 20, 2015
www.activate.com
Over the next five years, the consumer tech and media industry will
grow by over $500 Billion
2www.activate.com
Consumer T...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
5
CAPTURING ATTENTION IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME
www.activate.com
6
WE ANALYZED EVERY MINUTE IN AN AVERAGE
AMERICAN ADULT’S DAY
www.activate.com
Because attention is highly multitasked, the average American has
over 31 hours of activity in a day
7
TIME AND ATTENTION
...
The total tech and media attention up for grabs is enormous:

more than half the waking day is spent on tech and media
8
T...
All of this attention is split up across relatively few apps, sites and
channels
9
TIME AND ATTENTION
www.activate.com
APP...
We can find growth opportunities in people’s online behavior: how
many users visit the top websites and apps, and for how ...
A billion dollar business can be built by capturing less than a
minute of an average user’s daily attention
11
TIME AND AT...
Time spent on major digital activities like video, audio, social media
and gaming will continue to increase
12
TIME AND AT...
These behaviors dominate people’s attention around the world
13
TIME AND ATTENTION
www.activate.com
USA
11h 32m
BRAZIL
10h...
AmazonEcho
Multitasking will continue to grow as new products and experiences
expand the number of multitasking moments
14...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
*Messaging defined as communicating primarily in real time with other s; social defined as broadcast sharing of statu...
RegisteredUsers(Billions)
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.8
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.6
4.0
Year
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Social Media...
0
75
150
225
300
0 400 800 1200 1600
Social Network Messaging
Sources: AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experian, ...
*Indicates estimates; ** Estimate based on number of iPhones sold
Sources: AppAnnie, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Experi...
Sources: Gallup, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Colombia Reports, World Bank, Activate analysis. Median household inc...
Sources: GlobalWebIndex, Tech in Asia, Activate analysis. Facebook Messenger penetration Q1 2015, WhatsApp Q4 2014 21
MESS...
Sources: GlobalWebIndex, Tech in Asia, Activate analysis. Regional penetration rates as of Q1 2015, measured against adult...
Sources: AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance, Activate analysis 23
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
As major Asian messaging platforms...
Sources: LINE.com 24
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
Apps built on top of messaging enable users to solve broad
problems; messa...
* Includes Mexico
Sources: LINE Payment map, Twilio, U.S. Census Bureau, Forbes, Gallup, Colombia Reports, nations.org, Ac...
Sources: GlobalWebIndex, Facebook Messenger App, .com 26
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
Facebook messenger has been fo...
Sources: Pew Research, Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, Apple, Activate analysis 27
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
App...
Sources: snapchat.com, Re/Code, The Information, Activate analysis 28
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
While Snapchat is growing...
Sources: TechCrunch, vurb.com, CNBC, Activate analysis 29
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
New entrant Vurb pulls search results...
Sources: Fortune, WSJ, Skift, TechCrunch, Activate analysis 30
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
New consumer businesses are bein...
Sources: angel.co, AdWeek, Quartz, Yahoo Finance 31
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
In the US, low cost means consumer business...
Sources: slack.com, VentureBeat, TechCrunch, Medium, Activate analysis 32
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
Enterprise is also st...
Sources: Apple App Store, Google Play, Activate analysis 33
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
What users do in native apps today,...
Sources: Nomura, Andreessen Horowitz, Forbes, TechInAsia, The Economist, Activate analysis 34
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
A...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
Sources: Edison Research / Triton Digital, Activate analysis. AM/FM includes radio content consumed over digital platforms...
Sources: Edison Research / Triton Digital, Activate analysis. AM/FM includes radio content consumed over digital platforms...
Sources: Recording Industry Association of America, PwC, Radio Advertising Bureau, Ofcom, Activate analysis 38
STREAMING A...
TYPICAL U.S. DAILY BEHAVIOR, AGES 13+ 2014
Sources: comScore, Nielsen/Arbitron, Flurry, Activate analysis 39
STREAMING AUD...
Sources: U.S. Census, Edison Research, Activate analysis 40
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Today, young listeners spend ...
Sources: comScore, Activate analysis 41
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Legacy players have migrated audiences to digital...
Note: Music includes music videos
Sources: SNL Kagan, SESAC, Activate analysis 42
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
If we i...
Sources: Nielsen, Digital Music News, Next Big Sound, Activate analysis. Pandora excluded as not on-demand 43
STREAMING AU...
Sources: Spotify, Pandora, Activate analysis. Spotify available in 50+ countries; Pandora available only in United
States,...
45
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Subscriber loyalty will present a challenge to new services, but
YouTube has a shot be...
Sources: Apple, SoundCloud, Spotify, Pandora, Interviews, Activate analysis 46
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
What could...
Sources: Activate survey of adults 18+, October 2015, Activate analysis 47
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Today, most li...
Sources: Spotify, Apple, Activate analysis 48
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Another major area of differentiation will ...
Sources: Interviews, Activate analysis 49
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Some of the features that enable new players to...
Sources: IFPI, Activate forecast 50
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
By 2020, digital music revenues will be $10 Billion g...
51
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
There may be an upper bound to the number of consumers that are
willing to pay for a s...
Sources: IFPI, Activate analysis 52
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Most of user growth in digital streaming will be ad-s...
Sources: Activate analysis 53
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Beyond music, opportunities abound in non-music formats as
...
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Source: ...
Sources: Midroll, IAB, US Census, Edison Research, Activate analysis 55
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Podcast listeners...
Sources: Marketing.science, New York Magazine, Current, Ad Age, Activate analysis 56
STREAMING AUDIO
www.activate.com
Earl...
Podcasting becomes a web-scale, ad-supported industry; expect investment 

in podcasting advertising infrastructure and ne...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
Sources: Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
An inc...
Sources: Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
What’s...
Sources: BIA/Kelsey, Digital TV Research, eMarketer, Google, Hulu, Netflix, PWC, SNL Kagan, Statista Digital Market Outloo...
62
SO, IS IT TRUE THAT “THE FUTURE OF TV IS APPS”?
www.activate.com
YES, BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN EVERYBODY WILL CUT
THE CORD...
Sources: Leichtman Research Group, U.S. Census Bureau, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
We appear to ha...
5810
New
Experiences
VIDEO SOCIAL TEXT SOCIAL APPS &

MOBILE
WEB
TEXT VIDEO SOCIAL TEXT + APPSAPPS &

MOBILE
WEB
MOBILE
EM...
25
50
75
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Sources: U.S. Census, TDG Research, L...
66
THE PAY TV TRANSITION IS DIFFERENT
www.activate.com
CHANGES IN THE TV MARKET ARE NOT JUST A
SIMPLE TECHNOLOGY TRANSITIO...
67
Four reasons why cord cutting on TV won’t look like a typical tech
transition
X
C
www.activate.com
USERS: 

People are ...
Sources: Digitalsmiths, eMarketer, GfK, Sandvine, Nielsen, TDG, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
People...
Sources: Nielsen’s 2015 Total Audience Report and 2011 Cross-Platform Report, WSJ, Financial Times, The Guardian, Automate...
Pay TV 

(On-Demand)
Sources: Conviva, Deloitte, Activate analysis. Adds to more than 100% due to multiple preferred platf...
Sources: Deloitte, Ericsson ConsumerLab, Nielsen, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
Millennials still wa...
Sources: ComScore, Deloitte, Verizon Digital Media Services, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
All adult...
Consumer behavior has moved beyond traditional appointment
viewing and has created audiences for new kinds of content
73
C...
*Percentages refer to regular season games only
**Most markets; some smaller markets have select games on broadcast
Source...
75
X
C
www.activate.com
While some premium channels offer over the top subscriptions,
much of the most popular cable progr...
Sources: Bloomberg, Company data, comScore, Forbes, SNL Kagan, Socialbakers, Tubular Labs, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
...
Sources: YouTube, DigiDay, Variety, SocialBlade, Activate analysis. Views per video estimates based on content creator’s m...
Sources: AOL, Yahoo, BuzzFeed Company Websites, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
Digital media companie...
Sources: PWC, Digital TV Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Activate analysis. Monthly Average HH Income represented with linea...
Sources: CBS, CNBC, Federal Communications Commission, HBO, Hulu, Interviews, Netflix, Showtime, SNL Kagan, Activate analy...
Sources: Provider Offers as of October 16, 2015 as presented on Company Websites
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
Even if...
Sources: Business Insider Intelligence Unit, eMarketer, Leichtman Research Group, TDG, NPD, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING...
Sources: Adobe Digital Index, eMarketer, comScore, Nielsen, Viacom, Activate analysis
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
TV...
84
THIS IS PAY TV’S GAME TO LOSE
www.activate.com
BECAUSE CREATING AN OVER THE TOP BUNDLE IS
EXPENSIVE AND COMPLICATED, CA...
What will it take for Pay TV to stay competitive against
challengers?
85
CORD CUTTING
X
C
www.activate.com
An intuitive an...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
87
CABLE KILLER
X
C
www.activate.com
Lower-cost
package to
undercut the
cable bundle
Equivalent or
better video
content
Be...
88www.activate.com
FOR A NEW PLAYER TO CREATE A POTENTIAL
‘CABLE KILLER’, THEY’LL HAVE TO START BY
LICENSING ENOUGH TOP-TI...
Source: Company 10K Filings, Leichtman Research Group, Activate Analysis 89www.activate.com
Today’s cable operators have a...
Sources: AT&T, Charter, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Verizon, Activate analysis
CABLE KILLER
X
C
www.activate.com
A potenti...
Sources: Apple, Engadget, FCC, Activate analysis. Hardware prices assume two-year Cingular contract. Service cost estimate...
92
THE “CABLE KILLER” WON'T BE A LOW-PRICED
COMPETITOR, IT WILL BE “SMART CABLE”
www.activate.com
JUST AS SMARTPHONES FIRS...
What would a “cable killer” have to do to compete with a cable
company’s advantages?
93
CABLE KILLER
X
C
www.activate.com
...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
Sources: eMarketer, GlobalWebIndex, ITO, Morgan Stanley, NewZoo, SuperData, Activate analysis 95
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www...
96
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
Global spend of $74 Billion is likely to expand as video gaming
broadens to incl...
Sources: NewZoo, PwC, SuperData Research, Activate analysis. Revenue includes consumer spend and advertising. 97
GAMING AN...
Sources: Digitaltrends, Raptr, Valve, The Verge, VGChartz, Activate analysis. Based on registered/active users and unit sa...
Sources: ESPN, SNL Kagan, Activate analysis 99
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
The growth of multiplayer gaming wil...
2012 2013 2014 2015E
Sources: SNL Kagan, Twitch, SuperData Research, Activate analysis 100
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activ...
Sources: e-Sports Earnings, SNL Kagan, Socialblade, Twitch, Activate analysis. Top 15 user-generated content channels as o...
102www.activate.com
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
Organized multiplayer video game competitions are emerging as a
formidable spect...
2012 2013 2014 2015
18
11
3
2
www.activate.com
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
103
Growth in tournament prize pools - which are larg...
Sources: Forbes, NewZoo, Nielsen Scarborough, SuperData Research, Activate analysis 104
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate...
Sources: Forbes, NewZoo, Nielsen Scarborough, PwC, SuperData Research, Activate analysis 105
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.act...
Sources: Adweek, Eurogamer, Digiday, Fortune, NewZoo, SuperData Research, VentureBeat, Activate analysis 106
GAMING AND WA...
107
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
WAGERING
Real-money betting layer into games
and other digital entertainment
ex...
Sources: Adweek, Barkley, Boston Consulting Group, Elite Daily, Ipsos MediaCT, Lifecourse Associates, University of Nevada...
2012 2015E
162
60
Sources: Eilers Research, Fantasy Sports Trade Association, IBISWorld, Sports Business Journal, Activate...
110
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
Today, players pay to participate and fund prize pools for eSports
tournaments,...
Sources: SNL Kagan, Activate 2015 survey of adults 18+, Activate analysis 111
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
Mille...
FIRST-PERSON EXAMPLE: HOW TO EARN REAL MONEY REWARDS USING GAMING PLATFORM
CLAIM REWARDSREGISTER PARTICIPATE PLAY TO WIN
S...
Battle Arena 

(MOBA)
First Person Shooter
(MMOFPS)
Role-Playing Game

(MMORPG)
Strategy Games
www.activate.com
GAMING AND...
Sources: NewZoo, PwC, SuperData, Activate analysis 114
GAMING AND WAGERING
C
www.activate.com
The $80 Billion+ video gamin...
Sources: ABC News, Azubu, CBC News, The Daily Dot, Dotabuff, Engadget, Fortune, Huffington Post, Mashable, Company Press
R...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
117
THE DREAM OF THE INDEPENDENT DEVELOPER
BUILDING A BUSINESS IN THE APP STORE IS OVER
www.activate.com
Sources: Apple, App Annie (Distimo), IDC, Digi-Capital, Think Gaming, SuperData Research, Activate analysis 118
THE APP EC...
119
THE APP ECONOMY
www.activate.com
The number of developers on a platform doesn’t matter if the top 20
publishers take m...
120
THE APP ECONOMY
www.activate.com
Despite massive number of available apps, users are downloading
and using the same nu...
Sources: iTunes App Store as retrieved from PocketGamer.biz, eMarketer, Fiksu, Activate analysis 121
THE APP ECONOMY
www.a...
70%
70%
30%
20%
100%
30%
30%
60%
10%
90%
Sources: Apple, App Annie (Distimo), Activate analysis 122
THE APP ECONOMY
www.ac...
Sources: comScore, Activate analysis 123
THE APP ECONOMY
www.activate.com
The majority of top apps by unique visitors mone...
Sources: Activate analysis 124
THE APP ECONOMY
www.activate.com
A new wave of companies are building businesses by using t...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
Sources: Company financials, comScore, eMarketer, and Activate analysis. ARPU based on consolidated US revenues except:
Co...
Sources: Company financials, comScore, and eMarketer, Activate analysis. ARPU based on consolidated global revenues except...
THE AVERAGE AMERICAN SPENDS MORE TIME ON TECH & MEDIA THAN WORK OR SLEEP
MESSAGING WILL BLOW PAST SOCIAL NETWORKS AS THE D...
129
UNIFIED STACK
www.activate.com
VIDEO
GAMES
CONNECTIVITY
AUDIO
MESSAGING
PAYMENTS & WAGERING
ENTERPRISE & STORAGE
OS & ...
130
Not surprisingly, all of the major players are trying to solve many of
the same problems and attempting to play in mul...
131
WE CAN ANTICIPATE THE NEXT STRATEGIC MOVES
OF MAJOR CONSUMER TECH AND MEDIA PLAYERS
BY IDENTIFYING THE LAYERS THEY’RE ...
132
KEY INDEPENDENT PLAYERS IN EACH LAYER
Expect the next wave of M&A activity to be driven by larger players
looking to f...
133
COMPANIES THAT CAN’T BUY THEIR WAY INTO A
LAYER OF THE STACK WILL TRY TO “OVERLAY” IT
www.activate.com
BIG PLAYERS MAY...
Google Now, Apple Siri and Microsoft Cortana overlay other search
and messaging layers by providing a user interface which...
135
www.activate.com
THANK YOU
136
CREATED BY
Michael J. Wolf
Michele Anderson
Anil Dash
Michelle Forrest
Seref Turkmenoglu
Sri Narasimhan
Anthony Aguila...
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RegisteredUsers(Billions) 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 Activate Tech and Media Outlook 2016

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RegisteredUsers(Billions)
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.8
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.6
4.0
Year
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Social Media Users
Messaging Users
Internet Users
Sources: Activate forecast, GlobalWebIndex, eMarketer, ITO, Activate analysis. Note: Number of monthly active users is lower
than number of registered users 17
MESSAGING
www.activate.com
Messaging will add 1.1 Billion new users by 2018
Users of Messaging, Social Media, and Internet, Global, 2012 - 2018E
2.5 B 

Messaging Users
3.6 B 

Messaging Users
3.2 B 

Internet Users
4.0 B 

Internet Users
2.4 B 

Social Media Users
2.0 B 

Social Media Users

Published in: Technology, Business
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