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The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 1
Death of
Polling?
The
#ipsosmorilive
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 2
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI
Agenda
Julia Clark, Ipsos USA
David Ahlin, Ipsos Sweden
Nando...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 3
Ben Page
Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
4The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Sadly not everywhere looks like this …
Average candidate error in US Presidential ...
5The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
There’s a global
Ipsos has carried out election
conversation going
on about pollin...
6The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And pollsters all around the world are
How do we achieve a
representative sample?
...
7The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
... although our answers
Size/diversity of population
Turnout levels/compulsory vo...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 8
UK
experience
The
9The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
British Polling Council
Selection of samples
(their main explanation)
Representati...
10The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away
How would you vote if there...
11The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead too
How would you vote if there were a Gen...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 12
Ipsos MORI’s view:
We need to take a two-pronged approach
– tackle the problem of...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 13
Ipsos MORI’s view:
Healthy scepticism
not the death of polling
14The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
We need to improve representation of
No easy answers to this
(especially bearing ...
15The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Random samples after election though do not appear
to be hugely more representati...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 16
The Death of Polling?
So much more than
a horse race
17The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
So much more
richness in the
polls to help
us understand
public opinion
18The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Not to mention giving voters a
chance to express their views
19The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
Or using  analytics to get live, real-time reactions
to the big events: 23...
20The Death of Polling? Version 1 Public
And using new digital techniques to get closer to voters
7426
posts across
340 fo...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 21
Julia Clark
Ipsos USA
julia.clark@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
THE THEME IS:
More Data Than Ever
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-60
Dec-60
Nov-61
Oct-62
Sep-63
Aug-64
Jul-65
Jun-66
May-67
Apr-68
Mar-69
Feb...
Current US Political Polling Methodologies
PHONE
RDD
Lists
IVR (Robo)
TRADITIONAL
ONLINE
Probability
Panel Only
Lists
Blen...
Great Variation Among Pollsters
2
5
Constantly
Changing
Questionnaire
(daily)
Election
Day ‘Exit
Poll’ of
40,000
Voters
Continual Survey: 11,000/month (24/7/3...
A VERY QUICK
WORD ON THE US
ELECTION…
ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT THEME:
But Differential Framing of Problems & Causes
The rich are to blame
Middle Class Economics
Ameri...
Trump & Sanders are the Response
17%
5% 5% 6%
13%
3% 3%
29%
19%
Trump
Cruz
Carson
Otheroutsiders(Paul,
Fiorina,etc)
Establ...
Political Fundamentals Speak to a Republican Year
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35%
Government Approval Rating
OddsofWinning
Inc...
… AND LOW TURNOUT BENEFITS THE REPUBLICANS TOO
Source: Reuters / Ipsos Poll; Sept-Oct 2014
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 33
Nando Pagnoncelli
Ipsos Italy
nando.pagnoncelli@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
34 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE PREDOMINANCE OF COMPLEXITY
THE ELECTORAL SCENARIO IN ITALY - 2013
169 parties and
movements
2
35 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTOR
ELECTORATES become fluid, reactive to the political of...
36 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
in 2013 we experienced a political earthquake or, a tsunami
4
37 © 2015 Ipsos.
A GAME CHANGER EFFECT
MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
… with victims, politicians …
… and pollster alike
they got a sh...
38 © 2015 Ipsos.
EVERYBODY BECAME A POLLING EXPERT, except the experts
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
Discussions went on ...
39 © 2015 Ipsos.
Tecnè Demos Ipsos
diff vs. actual results
RIVOLUZIONE CIVILE 0,9% 0,9% 1,0%
SEL 0,0% 0,4% 0,4%
PD 4,9% 3,...
40 © 2015 Ipsos.
BUT SOME WERE MORE ACCURATE THAN OTHERS
THE POLLSTERS UNDER ACCUSATION
WHAT WENT RIGHT WHY IT WENT RIGHT
...
41 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE PREDOMINANCE OF MADNESS
THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE
Our stakeholders show a schizophrenic attitude
• one ...
42 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE FlashForward Effect
THE POLLSTERS CHALLENGE
… and everyone acted consequently.
Polls act as an activa...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 43
David Ahlin
Ipsos Sweden
david.ahlin@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
2,9
(2006)
5,7
(2010)
12,9
(2014)
0
10
20
30
Electoral support for the Sweden Democrats 2006-2016
2006 2010 2014
0
30
60
Left-Right Parties Election 2006 Left-Right Parties February 2016
From two political blocks to three – in ten years
Immigration most pressing issue and Voter support
for Sweden Democrats
5
8
13
20
20
40
6
7
9
12
14
17
0
20
40
June-2010 Ju...
Immigration most pressing issue and google searches
for “refugee” in Swedish
8 13
20 20
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
June-2014 Aug...
17.2
23.9
0
20
Average voter support Telephone based methods Average voter support Web based methods
Voter support Sweden ...
49 © 2015 Ipsos.
The state of polling 2016
SWEDEN
Social effects /
Interviewer effects
Higher share of non-
response in st...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 50
Darrell Bricker
Ipsos Canada
darrell.bricker@ipsos.com
#ipsosmorilive
51 © 2015 Ipsos.
Ipsos Final Poll vs. Actual Election Results—National
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Ipsos Final Poll Election Results
...
52 © 2015 Ipsos.
Online/Telephone Research (Call Poll)
ELECTION DEBRIEF
2 waves consisting of minimum sample sizes of:
1/3...
53 © 2015 Ipsos.
Call Poll Sample Breakdown
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Base: Final Call Poll (Total n=2,503; Online n=1,502; CATI n=...
54 © 2015 Ipsos.
What We Learned
54 © 2015 Ipsos.
55 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Mixed mode methods show promise.
Ipsos will continue to e...
56 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
Online and offline methods consistently under and over-es...
57 © 2015 Ipsos.
Lessons Learned and Next Steps
ELECTION DEBRIEF
LIKELY VOTER ESTIMATES,
while logically attractive,
work ...
58 © 2015 Ipsos.
Likely Voter Model
A REGRESSION MODEL BASED ON…
PAST BEHAVIOUR
INTENT TO VOTE
INTEREST IN ELECTION
59 © 2015 Ipsos.
Final Weighted Call Poll by Likely Voter
ELECTION DEBRIEF
38%
37%
37%
37%
37%
31%
32%
32%
33%
32%
22%
22%...
The Death of Polling Version 1 Public 60
Thanks for listening
Q&A
#ipsosmorilive
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More Data Than Ever 0 The Death of Polling?

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More Data Than Ever
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20
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60
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Jan-60
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Oct-62
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Dec-71
Nov-72
Oct-73
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Jul-76
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May-78
Apr-79
Mar-80
Feb-81
Jan-82
Dec-82
Nov-83
Oct-84
Sep-85
Aug-86
Jul-87
Jun-88
May-89
Apr-90
Mar-91
Feb-92
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Jul-98
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May-00
Apr-01
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Jan-04
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Number of Polls per month - 1960 - 2013Number of Polls per Month – 1960 - 2013
17,058 polls in 2012

Published in: News & Politics
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