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MOBILE
ATE THE
WORLD
BENEDICT EVANS
March 2016
@benedictevans
The universal
technology product
3
Thirty years of the PC
From 9m units to 300m+ in three decades
Source: Gartner, a16z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1984 1986 1988 ...
4
Overtaken by a new ecosystem
Fundamental shift in scale - from 300m+ PC units a year to 1.5bn smartphones and growing
So...
5
Mobile is the new scale
Mobile was always bigger than PCs, but separate, and not really part of the computing
market. Sm...
6
(And tablets add a quarter-billion more)
Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Gartner, a16z
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1984 1986 1988 ...
7
3bn modern computers
There are 3bn iOS and Android computers on earth and 2.5bn smartphones
Source: Apple, Google, Gartn...
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Population Population over 16 Mobile users Smartphones PCs
Global population (bn)
Growth to 2020
201...
9
An iPhone 6 CPU has 625 times more
transistors than a 1995 Pentium.
iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x
more CPU tr...
10
Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer
Mobile takes computing to people hardly touched by technology before
10 Source: Al...
11
Yes, everyone
Networks almost everywhere, and the entry price for Android is now well under $50
Source: Ericsson, McKin...
12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Least developed countries Developing Developed World
500MB mobile data as % per capita gross nati...
13
Every
corporation
‘Every home
and every
desk’
Every pocket
The first universal tech product
Mobile completes a journey ...
The new ecosystem
15
Mainframes
100k
Workstations
10m
PCs
1.5bn
Mobile
5bn+
Mobile is the new tech ecosystem
Tech moves forward by going fro...
16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Games consoles Cameras TVs PCs Smartphones Mobile phones
Unit sales, 2015e (bn)
Smartphones have un...
17
Tech moves in ecosystems.
Each ecosystem is the centre of innovation
and investment for that generation.
The ‘PC’ ecosy...
18
What does ‘mobile’ mean?
These are ‘PCs’, but not ‘personal computers’: they’re the product of the PC ecosystem.
The sa...
19
Hardware
innovation
centres on
ARM and
smartphones
Software shifts
to a native
touch UX
Secure,
sandboxed
software
mode...
20
‘Tablets’ are PCs, but from the new ecosystem
Tablets (and Chromebooks) come from the mobile ecosystem but address ‘per...
21
A drone is a
smartphone that
flies
Most of the intelligent components
of a drone come from the
smartphone ecosystem
‘Mo...
22
Ecosystems are Lego for technology
‘Mobile’ Lego overtakes ‘PC’ Lego
Smartphone components enable a ’Cambrian Explosion...
23
Our grandparents could count their electric
motors.
Our parents could count the things they
owned with a chip inside.
W...
24
‘A computer
shouldn’t ask
anything it
could work
out’
Sensors
profoundly
change what
a computer
can know
Every new
sens...
25
New systems, not just new products
Ubiquitous connectivity and sensors enable fundamentally new approaches
Operating ef...
26
Redesigning the system: containerisation
Unload the ship faster, then build 10x bigger ships, then move the supply chai...
27
Redesigning the car?
As technology remakes what cars are, how far can tech companies take advantage?
* Mercedes, BMW, A...
28
Fundamental reduction in
mechanical complexity
Different supply chain,
manufacturing structure
Change who can make
cars...
29
'Driverless cars' = 'horseless carriages'
Electricity and autonomy will allow fundamental redesign of vehicles
29 Sourc...
30
Redesigning the system
How will the end of manual driving (and parking) change the urban landscape?
“It was easy to pre...
New productivity
32
We all know mobile is bigger than PCs, just
as PCs were bigger than mainframes or
workstations.
Eventually, PCs supplan...
33
Computing in 1960
Everyone in this picture is an Excel cell – the building is a spreadsheet
33
34
A tool for real
work: the Friden
Adding Machine
“Electronic data processing
systems did not come about for
the purpose ...
35
Then they bought a mainframe
New tools change what work means
Source: IBM35
36
The future comes looking like something you
can’t use for real work.
These days it often looks like a toy for rich
hips...
37
The toy gets better…
“You can’t do CAD on (DOS, Windows, Web, Mobile)”
37 Source: Onshape
38
…and matches or beats the old ways
“You can’t do video on (PCs, Windows, Web)”
38 Source: Frame.io
39
And work changes. A thousand VPs today…
When we say ‘real work’, do we mean what the business needs, or the tools we ha...
40
Tools follow workflows, then reshape them
First you make the new tools fit into the old way of working.
Over time, the ...
41
Cloud, AI and mobile devices drive new tools
and new workflows.
Unbundling & rebundling of business tasks.
New connecti...
The internet moves
to mobile
43
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US onl...
44
Media and attention moved…
Global Internet advertising is now a quarter of the total advertising market
Source: Zenith,...
45
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2013 2014 2015
‘What’s your most important device for accessing the internet?’ (UK, summer 2015)
De...
46
Half of Facebook’s base is mobile-only
52% of Facebook's 1.6bn monthly active users only use it on mobile
Source: Faceb...
47
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile share of US ‘Black Friday’ ecommerce
Share of traffic
S...
48
Only at home
8%
Mainly at home
16%
Both at home and outside
66%
Mainly out of home
9%
Only out of home
1%
Where do you ...
49
Smartphones, 19%
Tablets, 22%
PCs, 27%
Consoles, 3%
STBs, 18%
Streaming boxes, 8%
BBC video requests by platform, Decem...
50
Mobile means richer, not limited
The smartphone is now a more capable and sophisticated internet platform than the PC
P...
51
Mobile is not a sub-set of the Internet
anymore.
Mobile becomes the Internet - the main way
that most people go online....
52
Mobile’s multiplier effect
Increase in sophistication and complexity of mobile is as important as the increase in scale...
And on mobile, the
internet is different
54
For 20 years, PC internet mostly meant web
browser + mouse + keyboard.
Search (and later Facebook) dominated.
Mobile un...
55
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Jun 2013 Jun 2014 Jun 2015
Billion minutes online, USA
Mobile browser
Mobile app
Deskto...
56
0
100
200
300
400
500
Desktop web Mobile web Mobile apps
Properties hitting US monthly user thresholds
5-10m
10-20m
20m...
57
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Jun 2013 Jun 2014 Jun 2015
Billion minutes online, USA
Mobile browser
Facebook etc
Mobi...
58
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
iOS Android
Mobile web traffic, Q4 2015
Other web views
Facebook web
views
Web browser
And Face...
59
Really, nothing’s settled yet
If I say ‘I installed an app on my Android smartphone’, what will that mean in 5 years’ t...
60
OS competition drives continuous change
Apple and Google both won the mobile OS wars, in different ways
Both keep innov...
61
There’s no single global market anymore
Global tech market shares mean relatively little - there are many markets with ...
62
A smartphone
OS isn’t a neutral
platform
Smartphones are internet
platforms. On PC you built for web:
on mobile you bui...
63
And more
platforms from
maps and social
New discovery, engagement and
user acquisition models.
Moving up the stack.
Bai...
64
More and more
platform
experimentation
Huge scale opportunities and low
entry costs mean endless
experiments.
New inter...
65
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Facebook Messenger WhatsApp Instagram Snapchat
(daily active)
WeChat Baidu Maps iOS Google
Android
...
66
Direct, 23%
Youtube, 14%
Search, 2%
Facebook, 6%
Facebook video, 27%
Facebook images, 4%
Snapchat, 21%
Other, 3%
Buzzfe...
67
“There are only two ways I know of to make
money in software: bundling and
unbundling.”
- Jim Barksdale
68
App stores &
discovery in 2016
= Yahoo in 1996
Mobile breaks the PageRank
model for many services, and
hasn’t yet been ...
69
Web
Smartphone
apps
Messaging?
Maps? Now?
Siri? Bots?
Notifications?
Looking for a 3rd run-time, with acquisition
We un...
70
Interim solution: give Facebook $13bn
How do you get traffic or get your app installed? Well…
Source: Facebook, a16z
0
...
71
But then, you always have to pay
There’s nothing new about paying to reach customers
Source: Google, Facebook, Zenith, ...
What kind of gatekeeper works for you?
Which is better – a department store or a boutique? Or all of them?
72
73
“Who, whom?”
Who has the traffic, and to whom do they give it? And how does the platform change that?
73
Software is eating
the world
75
The future as imagined in 1990
Newspapers thought the ‘information super-highway’ would cut printing costs. Yes, but…
w...
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52 Mobile’s multiplier effect Increase Mobile Is Eating the World (2016)

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52
Mobile’s multiplier effect
Increase in sophistication and complexity of mobile is as important as the increase in scale
!
Vastly
bigger
opportunity
=
3-4x more
smartphones
than PCs
Used everywhere
Used much more
Used in more
sophisticated ways

Published in: Mobile, Technology

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